Celestia’s TIA Braces for Price Volatility Amid $900M Token Unlock

The native cryptocurrency of data availability blockchain Celestia (TIA) braces for volatility due to its massive supply event on October 30, which will nearly double the number of tokens in circulation.

Some 175 million of previously locked-up TIA, 80% of the current supply, will be released on Wednesday, in the largest single unlocking event since the token was launched last October, Tokenomist data shows. That’s $920 million worth of tokens with prices slightly above $5 on exchanges.

Core contributors are scheduled to receive 58 million ($298 million) TIA tokens, per Tokenomist. 65 million ($332 million) tokens are allocated to early investors of the project’s series A and B funding rounds, with another 52 million ($268 million) tokens for seed investors.

Cryptocurrency projects often lock a part of the token’s supply and release it gradually to prevent early investors and insiders from selling in large quantities immediately after they get the allocations. When the tokens are unlocked, they become available to sell, and thus, such events are usually considered bearish; often they induce price drops. However, sometimes investors front-run and may sell before the unlocking happens.

In TIA’s case, prices have tumbled as much as 80% from the February peak of $21, and have consolidated in the $4-$6 range for multiple months. Meanwhile, funding rates for TIA perpetual futures sit in deeply negative territory, reaching a -90% annualized rate on crypto exchange Binance, CoinGlass data shows. This suggests traders are expecting declining prices or TIA holders are hedging their exposure leading into the unlock.

“There could be some pronounced effects,” David Shuttleworth, partner at Anagram, told CoinDesk, noting that the amount of tokens being unlocked is multiple times larger than the average daily trading volume between $50 million and $200 million over the past month. “The broader timing, however, is favorable,” he added, with bitcoin (BTC) trading near all-time highs and other majors including ether (ETH) and solana (SOL) also performing well.

Given the broad crypto market rally, the probability of TIA surprising traders with a rally following the unlock has increased, according to well-followed crypto analyst Will Clemente, founder of Reflexivity Research.

“This BTC price action has further slid the probability of Thursday’s TIA unlock being bearish towards ‘no,'” Clemente said in an X post.

“6 months of reaccumulation after 80% drawdown, ton of OTC volume, most widely telegraphed unlock in crypto history, 9 figs [figures] short, BTC nearing ATHs,” he added. Am long rn.”

Binance, FalconX and the Curious Case of 1.35M Missing Solana Tokens

A brokerage firm has a few key jobs. One involves holding assets for clients and keeping track of who owns what.

FalconX, a cryptocurrency prime brokerage, apparently failed to do that for years with a pile of 1.35 million solana (SOL) tokens, now worth about $190 million, that it’d had in its possession since 2021.

Then, Binance, the largest crypto exchange and a key liquidity partner of FalconX, recently came forward as the rightful owner and asked for its SOL back.

It’s unclear exactly how FalconX was unable to keep track of the crypto and how Binance itself seems to have lost track of the money for years. But the situation raises questions about accounting systems and controls.

‘Reconciliation anomaly’

Around the time the trove of mystery SOL appeared in FalconX’s coffers, the value of the tokens lingered at around $20 to $30; not long after the collapse of FTX in late 2022, SOL sank under $10. At those prices, even 1.35 million Solana tokens are chump change to Binance, which has over $110 billion of assets in reserve and services over 90 million customers worldwide.

FalconX, when contacted by CoinDesk, confirmed that there had been “a reconciliation anomaly” involving solana tokens. The company reconciled its books against all exchanges, clients and partners, and no one showed records of a transaction, according to a FalconX spokesperson.

Binance, when contacted by CoinDesk, said its customers were never at risk of losing money as a result of the situation. Binance would’ve simply absorbed the loss itself if the 1.35 million tokens had never been found.

To earn money on the assets they’re in charge of hanging onto, prime brokerage firms like FalconX typically put assets to work, using them as collateral, or for lending or arbitrage opportunities. But that did not happen in this case as the assets were held in safekeeping, a FalconX spokesperson said.

Not long after CoinDesk came asking questions about the lost and found solana tokens, the companies responded via a joint statement, saying the assets in question were being returned to Binance and that the matter was now fully resolved.

“Binance and FalconX continue to operate business as usual,” the firms said in an email.

‘Weaker control environment’

Mysterious transactions and reconciliation head-scratchers happen in traditional finance, too, but crypto could be uniquely prone to a situation of this sort, where assets go unclaimed for years, inflating hugely in value in that time. Of course, crypto is a new area of finance, running on rapidly evolving infrastructure, which is home to highly volatile assets.

Speaking broadly, big auditing firms like PwC agree the relatively young crypto space is potentially susceptible to such reconciliation issues. “Mainly I would say the unregulated space is where things are less mature and there is a weaker control environment,” said Peter Brewin, a partner at PwC Hong Kong who specializes in digital assets, Web3 and the metaverse with a focus on tax and regulation.

FalconX, which was established in 2018 and valued at $8 billion at the time of a mid-2022 funding round, offers institutional customers a dashboard to manage portfolios and connect to a range of crypto exchanges, custodians, market makers and prop shops. Altogether, the brokerage handles over 100 million transactions a month, using a complex system of omnibus and subaccounts.

Binance recently made a move to close a VIP fees loophole used by prime brokerage firms, citing a lack of transparency in the way these firms structure their client accounts.

In the wake of FTX’s collapse, crypto trading firms have been focused on keeping critical functions in safely segregated structures, as Anatoly Crachilov, CEO and founding partner of Nickel Digital Asset Management, points out.

“Trading venues running matching engines do not hold assets, while custodians safeguard client assets, with market value further validated and reported by an independent fund administrator,” Crachilov said in an email.

MicroStrategy Reports Q2 Loss; Bitcoin Holdings Rise to 226,500

MicroStrategy (MSTR) reported a second quarter net loss of $102.6 million or $5.74 per share versus income of $22.2 million or $1.52 per share one year earlier.

The loss came as the company took an impairment charge on its bitcoin holdings of $180.1 million versus $24.1 million in the second quarter a year ago.

Led by Executive Chairman Michael Saylor, the company disclosed July 31 bitcoin holdings of 226,500 tokens, up a handful of coins since the latest purchase announcement in mid-June. Those 226,500 bitcoins were acquired for $8.3 billion or a cost of $36,821 per token. At the current price of $63,500, those assets are worth about $14.4 billion.

“On the adoption front, we are extremely optimistic with the improved understanding of bitcoin and the increasing support for the ecosystem from bipartisan politicians and institutions on display at the Bitcoin 2024 Conference in Nashville,” said CEO Phong Le in the earnings release.

The impairment charge reflects the loss or gain of the company’s bitcoin holdings compared to the price that it was purchased at. While new accounting guidelines allow for companies to mark to market their digital asset holdings, firms are not yet required to do so.

Checking operations, the company posted $111.4 million in revenue versus analyst estimates of $122 million, according to FactSet.

Shares fell 6.5% in the regular trading session prior to earnings on Thursday alongside a steep fall in both stock and crypto markets. MSTR has more than tripled over the past year as the price of bitcoin more than doubled over the same period.

The Nasdaq-listed software firm in July announced a 10-for-1 stock split to make its stock more accessible to investors and employees. That split became effective at the close of business today.

Bitcoin Miner Marathon’s Shares Tumble After Revenue Unexpectedly Misses Wall Street’s Estimates

The shares of bitcoin miner Marathon Digital (MARA) fell as much as 8% on Thursday post-market trading after the company’s second quarter revenue missed Wall Street’s expectations. The shares have recouped some of their losses since then.

Marathon reported revenue of $145.1 million versus an estimate of $157.9 million, according to FactSet data. The company’s sales took a hit in the second quarter due to several operational challenges which hindered its ability to mine bitcoin as well as recent halving weighing on the mining sector, Marathon said in its earnings release.

“During the second quarter of 2024, our BTC production was impacted by unexpected equipment failures and transmission line maintenance at the Ellendale site operated by Applied Digital, increased global hash rate, and the April halving event,” said Fred Thiel, the firm’s CEO, in a statement.

However, Marathon said that the issues have since been remedied and the company reached an all-time high mining power of 31.5 exahash per second (EH/s) in the second quarter.

The miner also said that its second quarter adjusted EBITDA swung to a loss of $85.1 million from a gain of $35.8 million in the previous year, mainly due to unfavorable fair value adjustments of its digital assets and lower BTC being mined in the quarter.

Despite the challenges, the miner continues to see reaching hashrate of 50 EH/s by the year-end and plans to growth it further next year.

Marathon sold 51% of the bitcoin it mined in the second quarter to fund its operating costs. However, it recently announced that it bought $100 million worth of bitcoin in the open market and re-adopted strategy to fully hold all BTC in its balance sheet. The miner now holds more than 20,000 BTC in its balance sheet.

“During the quarter, we organized the internal structure of the business to better align with our growth opportunities, sharpen our strategic focus, bolster accountability, and accelerate our speed and agility as we scale,” said Thiel.